Current:Home > NewsEarly signs a new U.S. COVID surge could be on its way -InfinityFinance
Early signs a new U.S. COVID surge could be on its way
View
Date:2025-04-17 06:33:41
As the U.S. heads into a third pandemic winter, the first hints are emerging that another possible surge of COVID-19 infections could be on its way.
So far, no national surge has started yet. The number of people getting infected, hospitalized and dying from COVID in the U.S. has been gently declining from a fairly high plateau.
But as the weather cools and people start spending more time inside, where the virus spreads more easily, the risks of a resurgence increase.
The first hint of what could be in store is what's happening in Europe. Infections have been rising in many European countries, including the U.K., France, and Italy.
"In the past, what's happened in Europe often has been a harbinger for what's about to happen in the United States," says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "So I think the bottom line message for us in this country is: We have to be prepared for what they are beginning to see in Europe."
Several computer models are projecting that COVID infections will continue to recede at least through the end of the year. But researchers stress there are many uncertainties that could change that, such as whether more infectious variants start to spread fast in the U.S.
In fact, scientists are watching a menagerie of new omicron subvariants that have emerged recently that appear to be even better at dodging immunity.
"We look around the world and see countries such as Germany and France are seeing increases as we speak," says Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin. "That gives me pause. It adds uncertainty about what we can expect in the coming weeks and the coming months."
However, it's not certain the U.S. experience will echo Europe's, says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina who helps run the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.
That's because it's not clear whether Europe's rising cases are related to people's greater susceptibility to new subvariants they've not yet been exposed to. In addition, different countries have different levels of immunity.
"If it is mostly just behavioral changes and climate, we might be able to avoid similar upticks if there is broad uptake of the bivalent vaccine," Lessler says. "If it is immune escape across several variants with convergent evolution, the outlook for the U.S. may be more concerning."
In fact, some researchers say the U.S. is already starting to see early signs of that. For example, the levels of virus being detected in wastewater are up in some parts of the country, such in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. That could an early-warning sign of what's coming, though overall the virus is declining nationally.
"It's really too early to say something big is happening, but it's something that we're keeping an eye on," says Amy Kirby, national wastewater surveillance program lead at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But infections and even hospitalizations have started rising in some of the same parts of New England, as well as some other northern areas, such as the Pacific Northwest, according to Dr. David Rubin, the director of the PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, which tracks the pandemic.
"We're seeing the northern rim of the country beginning to show some evidence of increasing transmission," Rubin says. "The winter resurgence is beginning."
Assuming no dramatically different new variant emerges, it appears highly unlikely this year's surge would get as severe as the last two years in terms of severe disease and deaths.
"We have a lot more immunity in the population than we did last winter," says Jennifer Nuzzo, who runs the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health.
"Not only have people gotten vaccinated, but a lot of people have now gotten this virus. In fact, some people have gotten it multiple times. And that does build up [immunity] in the population and reduce overall our risk of severe illness," Nuzzo says.
Another crucial variable that could affect how the impact of a rise of infections is how many people get one of the new bivalent omicron boosters to shore up their waning immunity.
But booster uptake in the U.S. was already sluggish. "Nearly 50% of people who are eligible for a booster have not gotten one," says William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "It's wild. It's really crazy."
And the demand for the newest boosters is pretty lethargic so far. Fewer than 8 million people have gotten one of the new boosters since they became available over the Labor Day weekend, even though more than 200 million are eligible.
Given the likelihood of a surge, it's critical that people be up to date on vaccines, says Nuzzo. "The most important thing that we could do is to take off the table that this virus can cause severe illness and death," she says.
"There are a lot of people who could really benefit from getting boosted but have not done so."
veryGood! (54891)
Related
- What do we know about the mysterious drones reported flying over New Jersey?
- Coast Guard rescues 20 people stuck on ice floe in Lake Erie
- A 100 mph dash for life: Minnesota state troopers race to get heart to transplant recipient
- How Allison Holker and Her Kids Found New Purpose One Year After Stephen tWitch Boss' Death
- Which apps offer encrypted messaging? How to switch and what to know after feds’ warning
- When is Lunar New Year and how is the holiday celebrated? All your questions, answered.
- Nick Cannon Pays Tribute to His and Alyssa Scott's Son Zen 2 Years After His Death
- U.S. personnel wounded in missile attack on Iraq airbase by Iranian-backed rebels
- 'No Good Deed': Who's the killer in the Netflix comedy? And will there be a Season 2?
- $2.59 for burritos? Taco Bell receipt from 2012 has customers longing for bygone era
Ranking
- Will the 'Yellowstone' finale be the last episode? What we know about Season 6, spinoffs
- Mother, 3 adult daughters found fatally shot inside Chicago home, suspect in custody
- Burton Wilde: My Insights on Value Investing
- Dan Morgan hired as general manager of Carolina Panthers
- Paige Bueckers vs. Hannah Hidalgo highlights women's basketball games to watch
- Burton Wilde: Lane Club Upgrade, Enter the Era of AI Agency.
- 42 Valentine's Day Gifts for Men That He Will Actually Use
- At least 5 Iranian advisers killed in Israeli airstrike on Syrian capital, officials say
Recommendation
Apple iOS 18.2: What to know about top features, including Genmoji, AI updates
2024 Sundance Film Festival: Opening highlights
Canada is capping foreign student visas to ease housing pressures as coast of living soars
Macy's rejects $5.8 billion buyout ahead of layoffs, store shutdowns
Juan Soto to be introduced by Mets at Citi Field after striking record $765 million, 15
New York City plans to wipe out $2 billion in medical debt for 500,000 residents
Former West Virginia health official pleads guilty in COVID-19 payment investigation
Lindsay Lohan Is Reuniting With This Mean Girls Costar for Her Next Movie